Nigeria must address security challenges, attract investments, and implement robust regulatory measures to meet its goal of producing 2.06 million barrels of crude oil per day by 2025, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in its report, 2025 Nigerian Budget and Economic Outlook.
The report suggests that achieving this target requires increasing the current production average of 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) by 37%. Investments in key projects, such as Shell and TotalEnergies’ Bonga deepwater field and Ubeta upstream developments announced in late 2024, are critical to this effort.
PwC emphasises that oil production levels and global oil prices will significantly affect Nigeria’s projected revenue in 2025.
The Nigerian government has pegged its 2025 budget and Medium Term Expenditure Framework (2025–2027) on a benchmark oil price of $75 per barrel, which PwC considers achievable, given the global average oil price of $78.05 per barrel in 2024.
However, factors such as increased demand from China, OPEC’s supply restrictions, and U.S. shale production trends could influence global prices.
Conversely, a surplus in supply, as advocated by former U.S. President Donald Trump, could lead to a price drop, negatively impacting Nigeria’s oil revenues.
PwC notes that Nigeria could benefit from ongoing geopolitical changes, such as ceasefires in the Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, improved U.S.-China relations, and easing tensions in the South China Sea. These developments could stabilise global oil prices, reduce inflationary pressures, and strengthen supply chains, boosting Nigeria’s economy.
The report highlights Nigeria’s pressing security issues, citing over 4,500 violent incidents and 5,356 criminal activities between January 2023 and March 2024, including farmer-herder clashes and oil theft. These challenges undermine investor confidence, disrupt agriculture, and hinder economic progress, causing significant revenue losses.
To achieve its oil production target and sustain economic growth, Nigeria must prioritise enhancing security to protect investments and communities, implementing fiscal reforms to mitigate shocks and strengthening social protection programmes.
