The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has forecasted a significant decline in inflation to 24.7% in 2025. The group also predicts the naira will stabilise at an average exchange rate of N1,300 per US dollar, citing improved fiscal and monetary policy alignment as the driving factor.
These projections were outlined in the NESG’s 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook Report, released on January 23, 2025, under the theme “Stabilisation in Transition: Rethinking Reform Strategies for 2025 and Beyond.”
The report attributes the expected drop in inflation to enhanced coordination between fiscal spending and monetary interventions. According to the NESG, aligning government expenditures with targeted monetary policies will help curb the inflationary pressures that have persisted in Nigeria over recent years.
“…inflation is projected to decline to 24.7 percent, signaling an improvement in the country’s macroeconomic stability. The exchange rate is projected to strengthen, averaging N1300/US$1 in 2025 under the ideal stabilization pathway,” the report noted.
The NESG also forecasts a stronger naira, projecting the exchange rate to average N1,300/US$1 in 2025. This anticipated stabilisation is tied to favourable economic conditions. Stabilising global demand and increased crude oil exports are expected to boost Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves.
The revival of local oil refining capacity is also expected to reduce dependency on imported petroleum products, conserving forex reserves and easing pressure on the naira. Also, expanded agricultural output, supported by government initiatives and private investments, is set to enhance Nigeria’s export portfolio, contributing to increased forex inflows.
“This anticipated improvement reflects combined impact of higher crude oil sales, expanded manufacturing output due to resuscitation of oil refining sub-sector, and increased agricultural production, all contributing to enhanced foreign exchange (forex) earnings,” the report added.
As of December 2024, Nigeria’s inflation rate stood at 34.8%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). President Bola Tinubu has pledged to bring inflation down to 15% by the end of 2025.
